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What's the Likelihood?

According to academic research, an adult makes somewhere between 23,000 and 35,000 decisions a day. Many of these decisions are made subconsciously. According to researchers at Cornell University we make 226.7 decisions each day on just food alone.

Some decisions are relatively insignificant such as what to have for breakfast or what clothes to wear, and are typically made on an individual basis requiring little thought. Others are more important, requiring a much more refined analysis and quite often involving group consensus in order to decide on the appropriate course of action.

Meanwhile, the world of business is becoming more complex. Rapid changes in technology, the political and regulatory environment, combined with increased competition and litigation burdens, is putting more pressure than ever on organizations to make the best decisions. Uncertainty grows right along with business complexity.

Imagine living in a world of certainty. You would know in advance what schools you...

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Are you using this secret method to make better decisions that get better results?


How do you make the best-informed decisions that support the achievement of your objectives?  There is a systematic way to anticipate threats and identify opportunities, and it provides valuable information that leads to implementing effective action plans.

After you have clearly articulated your objectives, including the expected outcomes and how they will be measured, the next step is to contemplate the external and environment in which you seek to achieve those objectives.  I refer to it as “reflect” in the managing uncertainty system.

The external environment may include the factors such as: political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, legal, and the competitive environment.  These are generally not within your control.

The internal environment may include: governance, organizational structure, roles and accountabilities, policies, objectives, capabilities understood in terms of resources and knowledge, information systems and flows,...

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Miracle on the Hudson

I recently went to the theater to see the movie Sully, the story of Chesley Sullenberger, an American pilot who became a hero after landing his damaged plane on the Hudson River in order to save the flight's passengers and crew. 

US Airways Flight 1549 was an Airbus A320-214 which, three minutes after takeoff from New York City's LaGuardia Airport on January 15, 2009, struck a flock of Canada geese just northeast of the George Washington Bridge and consequently lost all engine power.

Without enough time to go through checklists and procedures, Sullenberger had only minutes to make a quick decision about where to safely guide the aircraft.  Unable to reach any airports, he glided the plane to a ditching in the Hudson River off midtown Manhattan.  All 155 people aboard were rescued by nearby boats and there were few serious injuries.

Captain Sullenberger’s flight training, as a fighter pilot, glider pilot, and ultimately an airline pilot with nearly 5,000 hours in...

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